While earthquakes are difficult to predict,
a new study suggests that next year the world may see more of the natural
disasters.
Research done
by U.S. geologists, which was presented to the Geological Society of
America’s annual meeting, explains that the Earth’s rotation has slowed very
minimally. And that could mean 2018 will see more earthquakes than usual.
University
of Colorado’s Roger Bilham and University of Montana’s Rebecca Bendick
evaluated data from the past 117 years, indicating that there is a “strong”
correlation between Earth’s rotational speed and earthquakes. The Earth’s speed
slows down for five or six years every few decades, as part of its natural
cycle.
The scientists explained that most
years there are about 15 major earthquakes. But since 1900, there have been
five periods when there was increased seismic activity. Those extra-active
periods coincided with the Earth’s rotation slowing by about one millisecond a
day.
“On
five occasions in the past century a 25-30 per cent increase in annual numbers
of earthquakes [of 7.0 magnitude or more] has coincided with a slowing in
the mean rotation velocity of the Earth, with a corresponding decrease at times
when the length-of-day is short,” the study reads.
Bilham said in an interview
with The Observer that 2017 has been “easy” in terms of the
number of major earthquakes.
“Next
year we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthquakes,” he
explained. “We have had it easy this year. So far we have only had about six
severe earthquakes. We could easily have 20 a year starting in 2018.”
While the researchers aren’t
able to predict specific earthquakes, they do have some insight on which areas
are most likely to be affected.
“The observed relationship is
unable to indicate precisely when and where these future earthquakes will
occur, although we note that most of the additional earthquakes have
historically occurred near the equator in the West and East Indies,” the study
explains.
It
adds that 80 per cent of Caribbean quakes since 1900 have occurred following a
deceleration in the Earth’s rotation, including the 2010 Haiti
earthquake which left thousands dead.
Take study with a grain of salt:
researcher
An
article in the Washington Post warns that
this study has yet to be backed up by additional research.
Bendick,
one of the study’s researchers, told the newspaper that the findings were
“statistically significant,” but they’re not as clearcut as they may seem.
“We’re
scientists, not magicians,” she said, explaining that the study does not intend
to predict definitively that there will be more earthquakes next year — but
that they are more likely.
